Middleweight
5 Rounds
Derek Brunson won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, October 28, 2017·Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupDerek Brunson: WrestlervsLyoto Machida: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Derek Brunson wins(64.8%)
Actual result: Derek Brunson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Lyoto Machida is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Derek Brunson has lost 86% of fights by KO.
- Lyoto Machida has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Derek Brunson
Red Corner
VS
Lyoto Machida
Blue Corner
-145
(59%)
Vegas Odds
+135
(43%)
42
Age
47
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
6'1"
195.58 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Derek BrunsonL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 20W
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 21W
SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 21L
KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 22L
KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Mar 23Lyoto MachidaW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs CB Dollaway · Dec 14L
SUBvs Luke Rockhold · Apr 15L
KOvs Yoel Romero · Jun 15W
vs Eryk Anders · Feb 18W
KOvs Vitor Belfort · May 18Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Derek BrunsonMetricLyoto Machida
3.51
Strikes / min
2.59
3.05
Strikes absorbed / min
1.57
51%
Strike defense
61%
3.14
TDs / 15 min
1.21
85%
Takedown defense
75%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.46evenly matched on net striking+1.02
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Derek BrunsonLyoto Machida
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Derek Brunson(10 fights)Lyoto Machida(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+73.4-73.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-714.0714.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
Derek Brunson
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights21
Lyoto Machida
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights16