Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Derek Brunson is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Roan Carneiro has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Roan Carneiro has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Derek Brunson (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Derek BrunsonL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 20W
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 21W
SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 21L
KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 22L
KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Mar 23 Roan Carneiro
oldest →W
SUBvs Mark Munoz · Feb 15W
vs Kenny Robertson · Sep 16L
vs Ryan LaFlare · Feb 17 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Derek BrunsonMetricRoan Carneiro
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.46evenly matched on net striking-0.36
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Derek BrunsonRoan Carneiro
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Derek Brunson(10 fights)Roan Carneiro(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -39.2|Blue +39.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -161.0|Blue +161.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Derek BrunsonTargetRoan Carneiro
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Derek Brunson edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:42
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
