Middleweight
3 Rounds
Derek Brunson won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Sunday, February 21, 2016·Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA, USA
Style matchupDerek Brunson: WrestlervsRoan Carneiro: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Derek Brunson wins(67.7%)
Actual result: Derek Brunson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Derek Brunson is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Roan Carneiro has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Roan Carneiro has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Derek Brunson (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Derek Brunson
Red Corner
VS
Roan Carneiro
Blue Corner
-365
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+305
(25%)
42
Age
47
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'11"
195.58 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Derek BrunsonL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 20W
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 21W
SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 21L
KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 22L
KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Mar 23Roan Carneiro
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Mark Munoz · Feb 15W
vs Kenny Robertson · Sep 16L
vs Ryan LaFlare · Feb 17Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Derek BrunsonMetricRoan Carneiro
3.51
Strikes / min
1.46
3.05
Strikes absorbed / min
1.82
51%
Strike defense
62%
3.14
TDs / 15 min
3.05
85%
Takedown defense
83%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
1.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.46evenly matched on net striking-0.36
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Derek BrunsonRoan Carneiro
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Derek Brunson(10 fights)Roan Carneiro(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+52.8-52.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-161.0161.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
Derek Brunson
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights21
Roan Carneiro
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights4