Middleweight
3 Rounds
Derek Brunson won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, August 8, 2015·Nashville, Tennessee, USA, USA
Style matchupDerek Brunson: WrestlervsSam Alvey: Striker
Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.
Model Prediction: Derek Brunson wins(57.9%)
Actual result: Derek Brunson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Sam Alvey is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Derek Brunson has lost 86% of fights by KO.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Tale of the Tape
Derek Brunson
Red Corner
VS
Sam Alvey
Blue Corner
-380
(79%)
Vegas Odds
+315
(24%)
42
Age
40
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
6'2"
195.58 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Derek BrunsonL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 20W
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 21W
SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 21L
KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 22L
KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Mar 23Sam AlveyL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Ryan Spann · May 20L
SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21L
vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22L
KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Derek BrunsonMetricSam Alvey
3.51
Strikes / min
3.28
3.05
Strikes absorbed / min
3.63
51%
Strike defense
52%
3.14
TDs / 15 min
0.06
85%
Takedown defense
82%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.46evenly matched on net striking-0.35
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Derek BrunsonSam Alvey
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Derek Brunson(10 fights)Sam Alvey(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+14.5-14.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+98.0-98.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.11.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Derek Brunson
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights21
Sam Alvey
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights23