Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Junior Dos Santos won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, March 9, 2019·Wichita, Kansas, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Derrick Lewis wins(59.5%)
Actual result: Junior Dos Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Junior Dos Santos enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Derrick Lewis is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Junior Dos Santos has lost 88% of fights by KO.
- Junior Dos Santos is a KO finisher (55% of wins). Derrick Lewis has lost 73% of fights by KO.
- Junior Dos Santos has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Junior Dos Santos has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Derrick Lewis
Red Corner
VS
Junior Dos Santos
Blue Corner
+200
(33%)
Vegas Odds
-240
(71%)
41
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'4"
200.66 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Derrick Lewis
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Jul 23L
vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23W
KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24W
KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25L
KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26Junior Dos SantosL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Dec 18L
KOvs Francis Ngannou · Jun 19L
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jan 20L
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 20L
KOvs Ciryl Gane · Dec 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Derrick LewisMetricJunior Dos Santos
2.46
Strikes / min
4.49
2.57
Strikes absorbed / min
3.33
39%
Strike defense
56%
0.55
TDs / 15 min
0.30
52%
Takedown defense
81%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.11Δ 1.27 — meaningful gap+1.16
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Derrick LewisJunior Dos Santos
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Derrick Lewis(10 fights)Junior Dos Santos(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+19.7-19.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+28.0-28.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.61.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Derrick Lewis
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights31
Junior Dos Santos
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights19