Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Derrick Lewis won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, July 29, 2023·Salt Lake City, Utah, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Marcos Rogerio de Lima wins(52.3%)
Actual result: Derrick Lewis wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Marcos Rogerio de Lima enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Marcos Rogerio de Lima is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Derrick Lewis has lost 73% of fights by KO.
- Marcos Rogerio de Lima has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Derrick Lewis has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Derrick Lewis
Red Corner
VS
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Blue Corner
+185
(35%)
Vegas Odds
-215
(68%)
41
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'1"
200.66 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Derrick Lewis
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Serghei Spivac · Feb 23L
vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23W
KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24W
KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25L
KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26Marcos Rogerio de LimaW3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Ben Rothwell · Nov 21L
vs Blagoy Ivanov · May 22W
SUBvs Andrei Arlovski · Oct 22W
vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Apr 23W
KOvs Junior Tafa · Feb 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Derrick LewisMetricMarcos Rogerio de Lima
2.46
Strikes / min
3.70
2.57
Strikes absorbed / min
2.90
39%
Strike defense
51%
0.55
TDs / 15 min
1.40
52%
Takedown defense
59%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.11evenly matched on net striking+0.80
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Derrick LewisMarcos Rogerio de Lima
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Derrick Lewis(10 fights)Marcos Rogerio de Lima(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+34.4-34.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+84.0-84.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.41.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Derrick Lewis
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights31
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights17