Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Sergei Pavlovich won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, July 30, 2022·Dallas, Texas, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Derrick Lewis wins(52.8%)
Actual result: Sergei Pavlovich wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Derrick Lewis is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Sergei Pavlovich has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Sergei Pavlovich is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Derrick Lewis has lost 73% of fights by KO.
- Sergei Pavlovich has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Sergei Pavlovich has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Sergei Pavlovich (53.5%).
- Sergei Pavlovich has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Derrick Lewis
Red Corner
VS
Sergei Pavlovich
Blue Corner
+135
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-155
(61%)
41
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'3"
Height
6'3"
200.66 cm
Reach
213.36 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Derrick Lewis
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Jul 23L
vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23W
KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24W
KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25L
KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26Sergei PavlovichW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Apr 23L
KOvs Tom Aspinall · Nov 23L
vs Alexander Volkov · Jun 24W
vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Feb 25W
vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Aug 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Derrick LewisMetricSergei Pavlovich
2.46
Strikes / min
4.43
2.57
Strikes absorbed / min
3.62
39%
Strike defense
55%
0.55
TDs / 15 min
0.48
52%
Takedown defense
75%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.11evenly matched on net striking+0.81
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Derrick LewisSergei Pavlovich
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Derrick Lewis(10 fights)Sergei Pavlovich(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+75.6-75.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+35.0-35.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.90.9
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Derrick Lewis
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights31
Sergei Pavlovich
StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach84.0"
Fights11