Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Serghei Spivac won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, February 4, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Derrick Lewis wins(55.0%)
Actual result: Serghei Spivac wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Derrick Lewis is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Serghei Spivac has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Serghei Spivac has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Derrick Lewis
Red Corner
VS
Serghei Spivac
Blue Corner
+255
(28%)
Vegas Odds
-305
(75%)
41
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'3"
200.66 cm
Reach
198.12 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Derrick Lewis
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Jul 23L
vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23W
KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24W
KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25L
KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26Serghei Spivac
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Ciryl Gane · Sep 23W
SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Aug 24L
KOvs Jailton Almeida · Jan 25L
vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jun 25W
vs Ante Delija · Feb 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Derrick LewisMetricSerghei Spivac
2.46
Strikes / min
3.57
2.57
Strikes absorbed / min
4.23
39%
Strike defense
52%
0.55
TDs / 15 min
3.82
52%
Takedown defense
63%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.11evenly matched on net striking-0.66
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Derrick LewisSerghei Spivac
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Derrick Lewis(10 fights)Serghei Spivac(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+48.1-48.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+7.0-7.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.11.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
Derrick Lewis
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights31
Serghei Spivac
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights15