Lightweight
3 Rounds
Devonte Smith won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, November 10, 2018·Denver, Colorado, USA, USA
Style matchupDevonte Smith: Pressure fightervsJulian Erosa: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Devonte Smith wins(57.7%)
Actual result: Devonte Smith wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Devonte Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Devonte Smith is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Julian Erosa has lost 78% of fights by KO.
- Devonte Smith has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Julian Erosa (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Devonte Smith
Red Corner
VS
Julian Erosa
Blue Corner
-230
(70%)
Vegas Odds
+210
(32%)
32
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
6'1"
193.04 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Devonte SmithL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Dong Hyun Ma · Feb 19L
KOvs Khama Worthy · Aug 19L
KOvs Jamie Mullarkey · Oct 21L
vs Ludovit Klein · Mar 22Julian ErosaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Ricardo Ramos · Mar 24W
SUBvs Christian Rodriguez · Jul 24W
KOvs Darren Elkins · Apr 25L
vs Melquizael Costa · May 25L
KOvs Lerryan Douglas · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Devonte SmithMetricJulian Erosa
4.55
Strikes / min
6.18
3.91
Strikes absorbed / min
6.31
49%
Strike defense
48%
0.35
TDs / 15 min
1.73
85%
Takedown defense
61%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.64evenly matched on net striking-0.13
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Devonte SmithJulian Erosa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Devonte Smith(5 fights)Julian Erosa(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-1.61.6
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+48.0-48.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+49.5-49.5
Devonte Smith
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights5
Julian Erosa
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights18