Featherweight
3 Rounds
Brian Ortega won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, January 2, 2016·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Diego Brandao wins(68.9%)
Actual result: Brian Ortega wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Diego Brandao has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Diego Brandao has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Brian Ortega (52.9%).
- Brian Ortega has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Diego Brandao
Red Corner
VS
Brian Ortega
Blue Corner
+145
(41%)
Vegas Odds
-165
(62%)
38
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'7"
Height
5'8"
162.56 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Diego BrandaoW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Daniel Pineda · Aug 13L
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Dec 13L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 14W
KOvs Jimy Hettes · Apr 15W
KOvs Katsunori Kikuno · Sep 15Brian OrtegaL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Sep 21L
KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 22W
SUBvs Yair Rodriguez · Feb 24L
vs Diego Lopes · Sep 24L
vs Aljamain Sterling · Aug 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Diego BrandaoMetricBrian Ortega
2.94
Strikes / min
3.84
3.38
Strikes absorbed / min
6.38
62%
Strike defense
49%
3.21
TDs / 15 min
0.93
80%
Takedown defense
54%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.44Δ 2.10 — meaningful gap-2.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Diego BrandaoBrian Ortega
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Diego Brandao(10 fights)Brian Ortega(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+27.7-27.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-112.0112.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Diego Brandao
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights10
Brian Ortega
StanceSwitch
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights13