Lightweight
3 Rounds
Diego Ferreira won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, December 8, 2018·Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Canada
Style matchupDiego Ferreira: Well-roundedvsKyle Nelson: Well-rounded
Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.
Model Prediction: Kyle Nelson wins(50.2%)
Actual result: Diego Ferreira wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Diego Ferreira is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Kyle Nelson has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kyle Nelson (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Diego Ferreira
Red Corner
VS
Kyle Nelson
Blue Corner
-550
(85%)
Vegas Odds
+425
(19%)
41
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'9"
Height
5'11"
187.96 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Diego FerreiraL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Dec 21W
KOvs Michael Johnson · May 23W
KOvs Mateusz Rebecki · May 24L
vs Grant Dawson · Jan 25L
KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Sep 25Kyle Nelson
oldest →latest
W
vs Fernando Padilla · Sep 23W
KOvs Bill Algeo · Mar 24L
KOvs Steve Garcia · Sep 24W
vs Matt Frevola · Oct 25L
KOvs Terrance McKinney · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Diego FerreiraMetricKyle Nelson
4.70
Strikes / min
3.60
3.46
Strikes absorbed / min
4.58
55%
Strike defense
53%
0.82
TDs / 15 min
1.18
57%
Takedown defense
66%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.24Δ 2.22 — meaningful gap-0.98
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Diego FerreiraKyle Nelson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Diego Ferreira(10 fights)Kyle Nelson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+41.1-41.1
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.9-0.9
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.049.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.749.7
Diego Ferreira
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights17
Kyle Nelson
StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights11