Featherweight
3 Rounds
Diego Lopes won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, August 5, 2023·Nashville, Tennessee, USA, USA
Style matchupDiego Lopes: Submission grapplervsGavin Tucker: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Diego Lopes wins(60.8%)
Actual result: Diego Lopes wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Gavin Tucker has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Diego Lopes has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Gavin Tucker (53.5%).
- Diego Lopes has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Diego Lopes
Red Corner
VS
Gavin Tucker
Blue Corner
-170
(63%)
Vegas Odds
+142
(41%)
31
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
5'6"
182.88 cm
Reach
167.64 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Diego Lopes
oldest →latest
W
vs Dan Ige · Jun 24W
vs Brian Ortega · Sep 24L
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Apr 25W
KOvs Jean Silva · Sep 25L
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Jan 26Gavin Tucker
oldest →latest
L
vs Rick Glenn · Sep 17W
vs Seungwoo Choi · Jul 19W
vs Justin Jaynes · Aug 20W
vs Billy Quarantillo · Dec 20L
KOvs Dan Ige · Mar 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Diego LopesMetricGavin Tucker
3.83
Strikes / min
4.29
4.56
Strikes absorbed / min
4.18
45%
Strike defense
57%
0.88
TDs / 15 min
3.13
68%
Takedown defense
53%
1.40
Sub atts / 15 min
1.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.73evenly matched on net striking+0.11
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Diego LopesGavin Tucker
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Diego Lopes(9 fights)Gavin Tucker(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-43.443.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-784.0784.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.11.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Diego Lopes
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights9
Gavin Tucker
StanceSouthpaw
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights7