Featherweight
3 Rounds
Diego Lopes won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, November 11, 2023·New York City, New York, USA, USA
Style matchupDiego Lopes: Submission grapplervsPat Sabatini: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Pat Sabatini wins(53.0%)
Actual result: Diego Lopes wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Pat Sabatini enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Diego Lopes is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Pat Sabatini has lost 100% of fights by KO.
- Diego Lopes has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Diego Lopes
Red Corner
VS
Pat Sabatini
Blue Corner
+110
(48%)
Vegas Odds
-130
(57%)
31
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'8"
182.88 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Diego Lopes
oldest →latest
W
vs Dan Ige · Jun 24W
vs Brian Ortega · Sep 24L
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Apr 25W
KOvs Jean Silva · Sep 25L
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Jan 26Pat SabatiniW4 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Damon Jackson · Sep 22W
SUBvs Lucas Almeida · Jun 23W
SUBvs Jonathan Pearce · Oct 24W
vs Joanderson Brito · Apr 25W
vs Chepe Mariscal · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Diego LopesMetricPat Sabatini
3.83
Strikes / min
1.69
4.56
Strikes absorbed / min
1.16
45%
Strike defense
54%
0.88
TDs / 15 min
4.27
68%
Takedown defense
50%
1.40
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.73Δ 1.26 — meaningful gap+0.53
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Diego LopesPat Sabatini
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Diego Lopes(9 fights)Pat Sabatini(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-51.751.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-49.049.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Diego Lopes
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights9
Pat Sabatini
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10