Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Brendson Ribeiro won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, March 15, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Diyar Nurgozhay wins(61.7%)
Actual result: Brendson Ribeiro wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Brendson Ribeiro threatens submissions; Diyar Nurgozhay has lost 100% of fights by sub.
- Diyar Nurgozhay has 59pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Diyar Nurgozhay (53.5%).
- Brendson Ribeiro has a 18cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Diyar Nurgozhay
Red Corner
VS
Brendson Ribeiro
Blue Corner
-430
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+340
(23%)
29
Age
29
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'3"
187.96 cm
Reach
205.74 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Diyar Nurgozhay
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Uran Satybaldiev · Aug 25W
vs Rafael Tobias · Mar 26Brendson RibeiroL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Feb 24L
vs Magomed Gadzhiyasulov · Jun 24W
vs Caio Machado · Nov 24L
KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Jun 25L
KOvs Oumar Sy · Sep 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Diyar NurgozhayMetricBrendson Ribeiro
4.52
Strikes / min
3.04
2.81
Strikes absorbed / min
3.91
61%
Strike defense
53%
1.37
TDs / 15 min
0.85
80%
Takedown defense
21%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.71Δ 2.58 — meaningful gap-0.87
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Diyar NurgozhayBrendson Ribeiro
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Diyar Nurgozhay(3 fights)Brendson Ribeiro(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+15.0-15.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+49.6-49.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+49.5-49.5
Diyar Nurgozhay
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights3
Brendson Ribeiro
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach81.0"
Fights7