Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Ryan Spann won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, November 12, 2022·New York City, New York, USA, USA
Style matchupDominick Reyes: StrikervsRyan Spann: Submission grappler
Striker must keep this standing. Grappler wins big if it hits the floor.
Model Prediction: Ryan Spann wins(53.3%)
Actual result: Ryan Spann wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Dominick Reyes is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Ryan Spann has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Dominick Reyes has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
- Stance matchup historically favors Dominick Reyes (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Dominick Reyes
Red Corner
VS
Ryan Spann
Blue Corner
-195
(66%)
Vegas Odds
+165
(38%)
36
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'5"
195.58 cm
Reach
200.66 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Dominick Reyes
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Jiri Prochazka · May 21W
KOvs Dustin Jacoby · Jun 24W
KOvs Anthony Smith · Dec 24W
KOvs Nikita Krylov · Apr 25L
KOvs Carlos Ulberg · Sep 25Ryan Spann
oldest →latest
L
vs Anthony Smith · Aug 23L
KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Apr 24W
SUBvs Ovince Saint Preux · Oct 24L
KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Mar 25W
SUBvs Lukasz Brzeski · Jul 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Dominick ReyesMetricRyan Spann
4.99
Strikes / min
3.11
3.40
Strikes absorbed / min
3.92
49%
Strike defense
43%
0.25
TDs / 15 min
1.21
82%
Takedown defense
59%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
1.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.59Δ 2.40 — meaningful gap-0.81
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Dominick ReyesRyan Spann
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Dominick Reyes(10 fights)Ryan Spann(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-20.620.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+378.0-378.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.01.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Dominick Reyes
StanceSouthpaw
Height76.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights13
Ryan Spann
StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights15