Lightweight
3 Rounds
Donald Cerrone won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, January 25, 2014·Chicago, Illinois, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Donald Cerrone wins(69.9%)
Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Adriano Martins has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Adriano Martins (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Donald Cerrone
Red Corner
VS
Adriano Martins
Blue Corner
-170
(63%)
Vegas Odds
+160
(38%)
43
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
5'10"
185.42 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22Adriano MartinsL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Juan Puig · Jul 14W
vs Rustam Khabilov · Feb 15W
KOvs Islam Makhachev · Oct 15L
vs Leonardo Santos · Oct 16L
KOvs Kajan Johnson · Sep 17Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Donald CerroneMetricAdriano Martins
4.41
Strikes / min
1.80
4.48
Strikes absorbed / min
2.14
53%
Strike defense
65%
1.16
TDs / 15 min
0.83
73%
Takedown defense
81%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.07evenly matched on net striking-0.34
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Donald CerroneAdriano Martins
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Adriano Martins(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+55.5-55.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-7.07.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+2.9-2.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Donald Cerrone
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights37
Adriano Martins
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights7