Welterweight
5 Rounds
Donald Cerrone won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Sunday, February 21, 2016·Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA, USA
Style matchupDonald Cerrone: Submission grapplervsAlex Oliveira: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Alex Oliveira wins(63.4%)
Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Tale of the Tape
Donald Cerrone
Red Corner
VS
Alex Oliveira
Blue Corner
-270
(73%)
Vegas Odds
+230
(30%)
43
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'11"
185.42 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22Alex OliveiraL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Peter Sobotta · Jul 20L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Oct 20L
SUBvs Randy Brown · Apr 21L
vs Niko Price · Oct 21L
KOvs Kevin Holland · Mar 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Donald CerroneMetricAlex Oliveira
4.41
Strikes / min
2.99
4.48
Strikes absorbed / min
2.55
53%
Strike defense
46%
1.16
TDs / 15 min
2.35
73%
Takedown defense
63%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.07evenly matched on net striking+0.44
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Donald CerroneAlex Oliveira
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Alex Oliveira(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+124.7-124.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-42.042.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.8-1.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
Donald Cerrone
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights37
Alex Oliveira
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights21