Lightweight
3 Rounds
Donald Cerrone won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Sunday, January 18, 2015·Boston, Massachusetts, USA, USA
Style matchupDonald Cerrone: Submission grapplervsBenson Henderson: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Donald Cerrone wins(63.5%)
Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Benson Henderson has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Benson Henderson (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Donald Cerrone
Red Corner
VS
Benson Henderson
Blue Corner
+125
(44%)
Vegas Odds
-135
(57%)
43
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
5'9"
185.42 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22Benson HendersonW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Josh Thomson · Jan 14W
SUBvs Rustam Khabilov · Jun 14L
KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Aug 14W
SUBvs Brandon Thatch · Feb 15W
vs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Donald CerroneMetricBenson Henderson
4.41
Strikes / min
2.93
4.48
Strikes absorbed / min
1.79
53%
Strike defense
63%
1.16
TDs / 15 min
2.40
73%
Takedown defense
63%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.07Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap+1.14
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Donald CerroneBenson Henderson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Benson Henderson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+46.5-46.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-133.0133.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.9-0.9
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
Donald Cerrone
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights37
Benson Henderson
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights14