Lightweight
3 Rounds
Donald Cerrone won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Sunday, August 14, 2011·Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA, USA
Style matchupDonald Cerrone: Submission grapplervsCharles Oliveira: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Donald Cerrone wins(56.6%)
Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Donald Cerrone has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Donald Cerrone
Red Corner
VS
Charles Oliveira
Blue Corner
+104
(49%)
Vegas Odds
-114
(53%)
43
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'10"
185.42 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22Charles OliveiraW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24W
vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25W
SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25W
vs Max Holloway · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Donald CerroneMetricCharles Oliveira
4.41
Strikes / min
3.23
4.48
Strikes absorbed / min
3.05
53%
Strike defense
48%
1.16
TDs / 15 min
2.29
73%
Takedown defense
54%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
2.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.07evenly matched on net striking+0.18
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Donald CerroneCharles Oliveira
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Charles Oliveira(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+17.6-17.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-182.0182.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Donald Cerrone
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights37
Charles Oliveira
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights36