Lightweight
3 Rounds
Donald Cerrone won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, September 27, 2014·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupDonald Cerrone: Submission grapplervsEddie Alvarez: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Eddie Alvarez wins(52.7%)
Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Eddie Alvarez is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Donald Cerrone has lost 57% of fights by KO.
- Eddie Alvarez has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Donald Cerrone has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Donald Cerrone
Red Corner
VS
Eddie Alvarez
Blue Corner
-135
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+125
(44%)
43
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'9"
185.42 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22Eddie Alvarez
oldest →latest
W
vs Anthony Pettis · Jan 16W
KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Jul 16L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Nov 16W
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Dec 17L
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 18Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Donald CerroneMetricEddie Alvarez
4.41
Strikes / min
4.32
4.48
Strikes absorbed / min
4.39
53%
Strike defense
55%
1.16
TDs / 15 min
2.92
73%
Takedown defense
92%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.07evenly matched on net striking-0.07
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Donald CerroneEddie Alvarez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Eddie Alvarez(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+127.8-127.8
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-47.247.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.849.8
Donald Cerrone
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights37
Eddie Alvarez
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights7