Lightweight
3 Rounds
Donald Cerrone won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, April 19, 2014·Orlando, Florida, USA, USA
Style matchupDonald Cerrone: Submission grapplervsEdson Barboza: Pressure fighter
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Donald Cerrone wins(60.3%)
Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Edson Barboza is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Donald Cerrone has lost 57% of fights by KO.
Tale of the Tape
Donald Cerrone
Red Corner
VS
Edson Barboza
Blue Corner
+160
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-170
(63%)
43
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'11"
185.42 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22Edson BarbozaL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Apr 23W
vs Sodiq Yusuff · Oct 23L
vs Lerone Murphy · May 24L
vs Drakkar Klose · Aug 25L
KOvs Jalin Turner · Dec 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Donald CerroneMetricEdson Barboza
4.41
Strikes / min
4.14
4.48
Strikes absorbed / min
4.68
53%
Strike defense
55%
1.16
TDs / 15 min
0.43
73%
Takedown defense
73%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.07evenly matched on net striking-0.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Donald CerroneEdson Barboza
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Edson Barboza(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-3.43.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-42.042.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
Donald Cerrone
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights37
Edson Barboza
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights32