Lightweight
3 Rounds
Donald Cerrone won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, November 16, 2013·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupDonald Cerrone: Submission grapplervsEvan Dunham: Submission grappler
Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.
Model Prediction: Evan Dunham wins(51.6%)
Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Evan Dunham (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Donald Cerrone
Red Corner
VS
Evan Dunham
Blue Corner
-125
(56%)
Vegas Odds
+115
(47%)
43
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
5'10"
185.42 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22Evan DunhamL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Joe Lauzon · Dec 15W
vs Rick Glenn · Sep 16L
KOvs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Apr 18L
KOvs Francisco Trinaldo · Sep 18L
SUBvs Herbert Burns · Jun 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Donald CerroneMetricEvan Dunham
4.41
Strikes / min
5.33
4.48
Strikes absorbed / min
3.54
53%
Strike defense
61%
1.16
TDs / 15 min
1.82
73%
Takedown defense
79%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.07Δ 1.86 — meaningful gap+1.79
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Donald CerroneEvan Dunham
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Evan Dunham(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+51.2-51.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-102.0102.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Donald Cerrone
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights37
Evan Dunham
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights17