Lightweight
3 Rounds
Donald Cerrone won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Tuesday, May 15, 2012·Fairfax, Virginia, USA, USA
Style matchupDonald Cerrone: Submission grapplervsJeremy Stephens: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Donald Cerrone wins(58.8%)
Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Jeremy Stephens enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Tale of the Tape
Donald Cerrone
Red Corner
VS
Jeremy Stephens
Blue Corner
-220
(69%)
Vegas Odds
+200
(33%)
43
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'9"
185.42 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22Jeremy StephensL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Zabit Magomedsharipov · Mar 19L
vs Yair Rodriguez · Oct 19L
KOvs Calvin Kattar · May 20L
SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Jul 21L
vs Mason Jones · May 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Donald CerroneMetricJeremy Stephens
4.41
Strikes / min
3.13
4.48
Strikes absorbed / min
3.25
53%
Strike defense
57%
1.16
TDs / 15 min
1.10
73%
Takedown defense
61%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.07evenly matched on net striking-0.12
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Donald CerroneJeremy Stephens
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Jeremy Stephens(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+36.8-36.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-83.083.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
Donald Cerrone
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights37
Jeremy Stephens
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights26