Lightweight
3 Rounds
Donald Cerrone won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, May 23, 2015·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupDonald Cerrone: Submission grapplervsJohn Makdessi: Pressure fighter
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Donald Cerrone wins(55.1%)
Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- John Makdessi has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Donald Cerrone has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Donald Cerrone
Red Corner
VS
John Makdessi
Blue Corner
-700
(88%)
Vegas Odds
+500
(17%)
43
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'8"
185.42 cm
Reach
172.72 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22John MakdessiL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Jesus Pinedo · Mar 19L
vs Francisco Trinaldo · Mar 20W
vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Apr 21L
vs Nasrat Haqparast · Sep 22L
vs Jamie Mullarkey · Sep 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Donald CerroneMetricJohn Makdessi
4.41
Strikes / min
5.52
4.48
Strikes absorbed / min
4.15
53%
Strike defense
68%
1.16
TDs / 15 min
0.00
73%
Takedown defense
86%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.07Δ 1.44 — meaningful gap+1.37
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Donald CerroneJohn Makdessi
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Donald Cerrone(10 fights)John Makdessi(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+125.9-125.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+97.0-97.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Donald Cerrone
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights37
John Makdessi
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights20