Welterweight
3 Rounds
Jorge Masvidal won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, January 28, 2017·Denver, Colorado, USA, USA
Style matchupDonald Cerrone: Submission grapplervsJorge Masvidal: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Jorge Masvidal wins(54.6%)
Actual result: Jorge Masvidal wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Jorge Masvidal enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Jorge Masvidal is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Donald Cerrone has lost 57% of fights by KO.
- Jorge Masvidal has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Donald Cerrone
Red Corner
VS
Jorge Masvidal
Blue Corner
-175
(64%)
Vegas Odds
+155
(39%)
43
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'11"
185.42 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22Jorge MasvidalL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Nate Diaz · Nov 19L
vs Kamaru Usman · Jul 20L
KOvs Kamaru Usman · Apr 21L
vs Colby Covington · Mar 22L
vs Gilbert Burns · Apr 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Donald CerroneMetricJorge Masvidal
4.41
Strikes / min
4.05
4.48
Strikes absorbed / min
3.05
53%
Strike defense
64%
1.16
TDs / 15 min
1.38
73%
Takedown defense
72%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.07Δ 1.07 — meaningful gap+1.00
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Donald CerroneJorge Masvidal
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Jorge Masvidal(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+142.8-142.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-7.07.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Donald Cerrone
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights37
Jorge Masvidal
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights22