Lightweight
5 Rounds
Justin Gaethje won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, September 14, 2019·Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, Canada
Style matchupDonald Cerrone: Submission grapplervsJustin Gaethje: Pressure fighter
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Justin Gaethje wins(64.5%)
Actual result: Justin Gaethje wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Justin Gaethje is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Donald Cerrone has lost 57% of fights by KO.
Tale of the Tape
Donald Cerrone
Red Corner
VS
Justin Gaethje
Blue Corner
+160
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-185
(65%)
43
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'11"
185.42 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Tony Ferguson · Jun 19L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22Justin GaethjeW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 23W
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 23L
KOvs Max Holloway · Apr 24W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 25W
vs Paddy Pimblett · Jan 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Donald CerroneMetricJustin Gaethje
4.41
Strikes / min
6.48
4.48
Strikes absorbed / min
7.05
53%
Strike defense
51%
1.16
TDs / 15 min
0.33
73%
Takedown defense
74%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.07evenly matched on net striking-0.57
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Donald CerroneJustin Gaethje
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Justin Gaethje(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+115.8-115.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-70.070.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-2.42.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Donald Cerrone
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights37
Justin Gaethje
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15