Lightweight
3 Rounds
Donald Cerrone won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, May 25, 2013·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupDonald Cerrone: Submission grapplervsKJ Noons: Striker
Striker must keep this standing. Grappler wins big if it hits the floor.
Model Prediction: Donald Cerrone wins(71.9%)
Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- KJ Noons is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Donald Cerrone has lost 57% of fights by KO.
- KJ Noons has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Tale of the Tape
Donald Cerrone
Red Corner
VS
KJ Noons
Blue Corner
-270
(73%)
Vegas Odds
+248
(29%)
43
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'10"
185.42 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22KJ NoonsL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs George Sotiropoulos · Oct 13W
KOvs Sam Stout · Apr 14L
SUBvs Alex Oliveira · May 15L
vs Joshua Burkman · Feb 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Donald CerroneMetricKJ Noons
4.41
Strikes / min
3.68
4.48
Strikes absorbed / min
3.78
53%
Strike defense
65%
1.16
TDs / 15 min
0.08
73%
Takedown defense
68%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.07evenly matched on net striking-0.10
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Donald CerroneKJ Noons
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Donald Cerrone(10 fights)KJ Noons(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+63.9-63.9
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-47.247.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.749.7
Donald Cerrone
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights37
KJ Noons
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights5