Welterweight
3 Rounds
Donald Cerrone won · KO/TKO R3
UFC Event·Saturday, December 10, 2016·Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Canada
Style matchupDonald Cerrone: Submission grapplervsMatt Brown: Submission grappler
Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.
Model Prediction: Donald Cerrone wins(51.7%)
Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Matt Brown is a KO finisher (77% of wins). Donald Cerrone has lost 57% of fights by KO.
Tale of the Tape
Donald Cerrone
Red Corner
VS
Matt Brown
Blue Corner
-300
(75%)
Vegas Odds
+250
(29%)
43
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'0"
185.42 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22Matt Brown
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20L
vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21W
KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21L
vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22W
KOvs Court McGee · May 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Donald CerroneMetricMatt Brown
4.41
Strikes / min
3.76
4.48
Strikes absorbed / min
2.92
53%
Strike defense
55%
1.16
TDs / 15 min
1.68
73%
Takedown defense
63%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.07evenly matched on net striking+0.84
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Donald CerroneMatt Brown
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Matt Brown(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+170.0-170.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-21.021.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.4-1.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Donald Cerrone
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights37
Matt Brown
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights25