Lightweight
3 Rounds
Donald Cerrone won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, August 11, 2012·Denver, Colorado, USA, USA
Style matchupDonald Cerrone: Submission grapplervsMelvin Guillard: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Donald Cerrone wins(61.2%)
Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Melvin Guillard is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Donald Cerrone has lost 57% of fights by KO.
- Melvin Guillard has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Donald Cerrone
Red Corner
VS
Melvin Guillard
Blue Corner
-335
(77%)
Vegas Odds
+305
(25%)
43
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'9"
185.42 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22Melvin Guillard
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jan 12W
vs Fabricio Camoes · Jul 12L
vs Jamie Varner · Dec 12W
KOvs Mac Danzig · Jul 13L
vs Michael Johnson · Mar 14Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Donald CerroneMetricMelvin Guillard
4.41
Strikes / min
2.96
4.48
Strikes absorbed / min
1.85
53%
Strike defense
66%
1.16
TDs / 15 min
1.30
73%
Takedown defense
61%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.07Δ 1.18 — meaningful gap+1.11
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Donald CerroneMelvin Guillard
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Melvin Guillard(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+20.7-20.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+53.0-53.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.5-1.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Donald Cerrone
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights37
Melvin Guillard
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights11