Lightweight
3 Rounds
Donald Cerrone won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, February 5, 2011·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupDonald Cerrone: Submission grapplervsPaul Kelly: Submission grappler
Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.
Model Prediction: Donald Cerrone wins(54.7%)
Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Paul Kelly is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Donald Cerrone has lost 57% of fights by KO.
- Donald Cerrone has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Donald Cerrone
Red Corner
VS
Paul Kelly
Blue Corner
-275
(73%)
Vegas Odds
+235
(30%)
43
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'9"
185.42 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22Paul Kelly
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Matt Veach · Apr 10L
vs Jacob Volkmann · Aug 10W
KOvs TJ O'Brien · Nov 10Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Donald CerroneMetricPaul Kelly
4.41
Strikes / min
3.22
4.48
Strikes absorbed / min
2.61
53%
Strike defense
59%
1.16
TDs / 15 min
1.34
73%
Takedown defense
30%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
1.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.07evenly matched on net striking+0.61
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Donald CerronePaul Kelly
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Paul Kelly(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-18.518.5
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+47.6-47.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+49.5-49.5
Donald Cerrone
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights37
Paul Kelly
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights4