Lightweight
3 Rounds
Rafael Dos Anjos won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Wednesday, August 28, 2013·Indianapolis, Indiana, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Rafael Dos Anjos wins(54.8%)
Actual result: Rafael Dos Anjos wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Donald Cerrone has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Dos Anjos (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Donald Cerrone
Red Corner
VS
Rafael Dos Anjos
Blue Corner
+105
(49%)
Vegas Odds
-115
(53%)
43
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
5'8"
185.42 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22Rafael Dos AnjosL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22L
vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23L
vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24L
KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Donald CerroneMetricRafael Dos Anjos
4.41
Strikes / min
3.48
4.48
Strikes absorbed / min
3.23
53%
Strike defense
60%
1.16
TDs / 15 min
1.95
73%
Takedown defense
54%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.07evenly matched on net striking+0.25
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Donald CerroneRafael Dos Anjos
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+8.1-8.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-7.07.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.1-1.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Donald Cerrone
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights37
Rafael Dos Anjos
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights32