Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Don'Tale Mayes won · U-DEC R3
DM
CM
Don'Tale MayesvsCaio Machado
UFC Event · Saturday, April 27, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Don'Tale Mayes wins(59.4%)
Actual result: Don'Tale Mayes wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Don'Tale Mayes enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Caio Machado has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Caio Machado has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Caio Machado (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Don'Tale Mayes
Red Corner
VS
Caio Machado
Blue Corner
+114
(47%)
Vegas Odds
-135
(57%)
34
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'6"
Height
6'4"
205.74 cm
Reach
198.12 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Don'Tale MayesL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Andrei Arlovski · Jun 23L
vs Rodrigo Nascimento · Nov 23L
vs Shamil Gaziev · Aug 24L
SUBvs Valter Walker · Feb 25L
vs Thomas Petersen · May 25Caio MachadoL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Mick Parkin · Nov 23L
vs Brendson Ribeiro · Nov 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Don'Tale MayesMetricCaio Machado
3.22
Strikes / min
5.82
3.61
Strikes absorbed / min
2.87
46%
Strike defense
63%
0.59
TDs / 15 min
0.00
46%
Takedown defense
82%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.39Δ 3.34 — meaningful gap+2.95
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Don'Tale MayesCaio Machado
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Don'Tale Mayes(10 fights)Caio Machado(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+14.7-14.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+14.0-14.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Don'Tale Mayes
StanceOrthodox
Height78.0"
Reach81.0"
Fights10
Caio Machado
StanceSouthpaw
Height76.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights3