Lightweight
3 Rounds
Drew Dober won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, September 10, 2016·Cleveland, Ohio, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Drew Dober wins(50.2%)
Actual result: Drew Dober wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jason Gonzalez threatens submissions; Drew Dober has lost 36% of fights by sub.
- Drew Dober has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Jason Gonzalez has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Drew Dober
Red Corner
VS
Jason Gonzalez
Blue Corner
-150
(60%)
Vegas Odds
+130
(43%)
37
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'8"
Height
6'2"
177.8 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Drew DoberW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Renato Moicano · Feb 24L
KOvs Jean Silva · Jul 24L
KOvs Manuel Torres · Mar 25W
KOvs Kyle Prepolec · Oct 25W
KOvs Michael Johnson · Mar 26Jason GonzalezL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs JC Cottrell · Jan 17L
SUBvs Gregor Gillespie · Sep 17L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Apr 19Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Drew DoberMetricJason Gonzalez
4.48
Strikes / min
3.06
4.33
Strikes absorbed / min
3.13
53%
Strike defense
58%
0.61
TDs / 15 min
0.00
58%
Takedown defense
30%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.15evenly matched on net striking-0.07
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Drew DoberJason Gonzalez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Drew Dober(10 fights)Jason Gonzalez(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-14.914.9
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-47.847.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-50.050.0
Drew Dober
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights26
Jason Gonzalez
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights4