Lightweight
3 Rounds
Drew Dober won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, August 25, 2018·Lincoln, Nebraska, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Drew Dober wins(59.3%)
Actual result: Drew Dober wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jon Tuck threatens submissions; Drew Dober has lost 36% of fights by sub.
- Stance matchup historically favors Drew Dober (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Drew Dober
Red Corner
VS
Jon Tuck
Blue Corner
-240
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+200
(33%)
37
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'11"
177.8 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Drew DoberW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Renato Moicano · Feb 24L
KOvs Jean Silva · Jul 24L
KOvs Manuel Torres · Mar 25W
KOvs Kyle Prepolec · Oct 25W
KOvs Michael Johnson · Mar 26Jon Tuck
oldest →latest
L
vs Kevin Lee · Sep 14W
SUBvs Tae Hyun Bang · May 15L
vs Josh Emmett · May 16L
vs Damien Brown · Nov 16W
SUBvs Takanori Gomi · Jun 17Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Drew DoberMetricJon Tuck
4.48
Strikes / min
3.00
4.33
Strikes absorbed / min
3.74
53%
Strike defense
60%
0.61
TDs / 15 min
0.42
58%
Takedown defense
50%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.15evenly matched on net striking-0.74
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Drew DoberJon Tuck
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Drew Dober(10 fights)Jon Tuck(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+25.4-25.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-224.0224.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Drew Dober
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights26
Jon Tuck
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights9