Lightweight
3 Rounds
Matt Frevola won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, May 6, 2023·Newark, New Jersey, USA, USA
Style matchupDrew Dober: Pressure fightervsMatt Frevola: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Drew Dober wins(50.7%)
Actual result: Matt Frevola wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matt Frevola enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Drew Dober is a KO finisher (73% of wins). Matt Frevola has lost 60% of fights by KO.
- Drew Dober has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Drew Dober (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Drew Dober
Red Corner
VS
Matt Frevola
Blue Corner
-225
(69%)
Vegas Odds
+188
(35%)
37
Age
35
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Drew DoberW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Renato Moicano · Feb 24L
KOvs Jean Silva · Jul 24L
KOvs Manuel Torres · Mar 25W
KOvs Kyle Prepolec · Oct 25W
KOvs Michael Johnson · Mar 26Matt FrevolaL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Genaro Valdez · Jan 22W
KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Nov 22L
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Nov 23L
KOvs Fares Ziam · Sep 24L
vs Kyle Nelson · Oct 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Drew DoberMetricMatt Frevola
4.48
Strikes / min
3.30
4.33
Strikes absorbed / min
3.76
53%
Strike defense
56%
0.61
TDs / 15 min
2.34
58%
Takedown defense
40%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.15evenly matched on net striking-0.46
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Drew DoberMatt Frevola
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Drew Dober(10 fights)Matt Frevola(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+51.8-51.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-35.035.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
Drew Dober
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights26
Matt Frevola
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights10