Lightweight
3 Rounds
Drew Dober won · KO/TKO R2
DD
MJ
Drew DobervsMichael Johnson
UFC Event · Saturday, March 7, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupDrew Dober: Pressure fightervsMichael Johnson: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Drew Dober wins(58.8%)
Actual result: Drew Dober wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Michael Johnson enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Michael Johnson has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Drew Dober
Red Corner
VS
Michael Johnson
Blue Corner
-200
(67%)
Vegas Odds
+168
(37%)
37
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'8"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Drew Dober
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Ricky Glenn · Oct 23L
vs Renato Moicano · Feb 24L
KOvs Jean Silva · Jul 24L
KOvs Manuel Torres · Mar 25W
KOvs Kyle Prepolec · Oct 25Michael JohnsonW3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Marc Diakiese · Dec 22L
KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23W
vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24W
KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24W
vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Drew DoberMetricMichael Johnson
4.48
Strikes / min
4.27
4.33
Strikes absorbed / min
3.78
53%
Strike defense
58%
0.61
TDs / 15 min
0.57
58%
Takedown defense
81%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.15evenly matched on net striking+0.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Drew DoberMichael Johnson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Drew Dober(10 fights)Michael Johnson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+3.5-3.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-91.091.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Drew Dober
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights26
Michael Johnson
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights32