Lightweight
3 Rounds
Drew Dober won · KO/TKO R3
UFC Event·Saturday, July 30, 2022·Dallas, Texas, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Drew Dober wins(56.8%)
Actual result: Drew Dober wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafael Alves threatens submissions; Drew Dober has lost 36% of fights by sub.
- Stance matchup historically favors Drew Dober (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Drew Dober
Red Corner
VS
Rafael Alves
Blue Corner
-165
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+140
(42%)
37
Age
35
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'8"
177.8 cm
Reach
172.72 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Drew DoberW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Renato Moicano · Feb 24L
KOvs Jean Silva · Jul 24L
KOvs Manuel Torres · Mar 25W
KOvs Kyle Prepolec · Oct 25W
KOvs Michael Johnson · Mar 26Rafael Alves
oldest →latest
L
vs Damir Ismagulov · May 21W
SUBvs Marc Diakiese · Nov 21L
vs Nurullo Aliev · Feb 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Drew DoberMetricRafael Alves
4.48
Strikes / min
1.85
4.33
Strikes absorbed / min
3.30
53%
Strike defense
58%
0.61
TDs / 15 min
0.29
58%
Takedown defense
44%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.15Δ 1.60 — meaningful gap-1.45
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Drew DoberRafael Alves
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Drew Dober(10 fights)Rafael Alves(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+55.3-55.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-119.0119.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.2-1.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Drew Dober
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights26
Rafael Alves
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights4