Lightweight
3 Rounds
Drew Dober won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, March 12, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupDrew Dober: Pressure fightervsTerrance McKinney: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Terrance McKinney wins(56.0%)
Actual result: Drew Dober wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Drew Dober is a KO finisher (73% of wins). Terrance McKinney has lost 60% of fights by KO.
- Drew Dober has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Terrance McKinney (54.1%).
Tale of the Tape
Drew Dober
Red Corner
VS
Terrance McKinney
Blue Corner
-155
(61%)
Vegas Odds
+135
(43%)
37
Age
31
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
5'8"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Drew DoberW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Renato Moicano · Feb 24L
KOvs Jean Silva · Jul 24L
KOvs Manuel Torres · Mar 25W
KOvs Kyle Prepolec · Oct 25W
KOvs Michael Johnson · Mar 26Terrance McKinney
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Esteban Ribovics · May 24W
KOvs Damir Hadzovic · Feb 25W
SUBvs Viacheslav Borshchev · Jun 25L
SUBvs Chris Duncan · Dec 25W
KOvs Kyle Nelson · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Drew DoberMetricTerrance McKinney
4.48
Strikes / min
6.53
4.33
Strikes absorbed / min
3.45
53%
Strike defense
43%
0.61
TDs / 15 min
3.31
58%
Takedown defense
72%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
2.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.15Δ 2.93 — meaningful gap+3.08
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Drew DoberTerrance McKinney
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Drew Dober(10 fights)Terrance McKinney(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+3.8-3.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+259.0-259.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.41.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.2-1.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
Drew Dober
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights26
Terrance McKinney
StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights13