Welterweight
3 Rounds
Josh Neer won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Friday, January 20, 2012·Nashville, Tennessee, USA, USA
Style matchupDuane Ludwig: StrikervsJosh Neer: Submission grappler
Striker must keep this standing. Grappler wins big if it hits the floor.
Model Prediction: Duane Ludwig wins(52.0%)
Actual result: Josh Neer wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Josh Neer enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Josh Neer is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Duane Ludwig has lost 75% of fights by KO.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Tale of the Tape
Duane Ludwig
Red Corner
VS
Josh Neer
Blue Corner
+155
(39%)
Vegas Odds
-165
(62%)
47
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'11"
177.8 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Duane LudwigL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Darren Elkins · Mar 10W
vs Nick Osipczak · Nov 10W
vs Amir Sadollah · Aug 11L
KOvs Dan Hardy · May 12L
KOvs Che Mills · Sep 12Josh NeerL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Keith Wisniewski · Oct 11L
KOvs Mike Pyle · Jun 12L
SUBvs Justin Edwards · Oct 12L
vs Court McGee · Feb 13Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Duane LudwigMetricJosh Neer
4.62
Strikes / min
3.29
3.05
Strikes absorbed / min
3.63
57%
Strike defense
58%
0.43
TDs / 15 min
1.09
59%
Takedown defense
46%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.57Δ 1.91 — meaningful gap-0.34
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Duane LudwigJosh Neer
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Duane Ludwig(6 fights)Josh Neer(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+48.0-48.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
Duane Ludwig
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights6
Josh Neer
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights5