Flyweight
3 Rounds
Dustin Ortiz won
UFC Event·Saturday, July 28, 2018·Calgary, Alberta, Canada, Canada
Style matchupDustin Ortiz: WrestlervsMatheus Nicolau: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Dustin Ortiz wins(52.2%)
Actual result: Dustin Ortiz wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Matheus Nicolau has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Dustin Ortiz
Red Corner
VS
Matheus Nicolau
Blue Corner
+170
(37%)
Vegas Odds
-200
(67%)
37
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'6"
165.1 cm
Reach
167.64 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Dustin Ortiz
oldest →latest
W
vs Zach Makovsky · Dec 16L
SUBvs Brandon Moreno · Apr 17W
KOvs Hector Sandoval · Aug 17W
vs Alexandre Pantoja · Jan 18L
vs Joseph Benavidez · Jan 19Matheus NicolauL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs David Dvorak · Mar 22W
KOvs Matt Schnell · Dec 22L
KOvs Brandon Royval · Apr 23L
KOvs Alex Perez · Apr 24L
vs Asu Almabayev · Oct 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Dustin OrtizMetricMatheus Nicolau
2.94
Strikes / min
3.31
2.17
Strikes absorbed / min
2.98
56%
Strike defense
65%
3.01
TDs / 15 min
1.22
52%
Takedown defense
90%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.77evenly matched on net striking+0.33
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Dustin OrtizMatheus Nicolau
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Dustin Ortiz(10 fights)Matheus Nicolau(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-12.912.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-21.021.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Dustin Ortiz
StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights14
Matheus Nicolau
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights11