Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Dustin Ortiz has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Willie Gates has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Willie Gates has a 18cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Dustin Ortiz
oldest →L
SUBvs Brandon Moreno · Apr 17W
KOvs Hector Sandoval · Aug 17W
vs Alexandre Pantoja · Jan 18W
KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Jul 18L
vs Joseph Benavidez · Jan 19 Willie Gates
oldest →L
SUBvs John Moraga · Dec 14W
KOvs Darrell Montague · Jul 15L
SUBvs Ulka Sasaki · May 16 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Dustin OrtizMetricWillie Gates
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.77Δ 3.25 — meaningful gap-2.48
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Dustin OrtizWillie Gates
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Dustin Ortiz(10 fights)Willie Gates(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +134.6|Blue -134.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.7|Blue -1.7
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +232.0|Blue -232.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Dustin OrtizTargetWillie Gates
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Dustin Ortiz edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns2
Control3:50
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Dustin Ortiz edged it
Sig. strikes31
Takedowns1
Control4:25
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Dustin Ortiz edged it
Sig. strikes47
Takedowns1
Control2:30
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
