Flyweight
3 Rounds
Dustin Ortiz won · KO/TKO R3
UFC Event·Saturday, August 8, 2015·Nashville, Tennessee, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Dustin Ortiz wins(67.5%)
Actual result: Dustin Ortiz wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Dustin Ortiz has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Willie Gates has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Willie Gates has a 18cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Dustin Ortiz
Red Corner
VS
Willie Gates
Blue Corner
-480
(83%)
Vegas Odds
+383
(21%)
37
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'8"
165.1 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Dustin Ortiz
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Brandon Moreno · Apr 17W
KOvs Hector Sandoval · Aug 17W
vs Alexandre Pantoja · Jan 18W
vs Matheus Nicolau · Jul 18L
vs Joseph Benavidez · Jan 19Willie Gates
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs John Moraga · Dec 14W
KOvs Darrell Montague · Jul 15L
vs Ulka Sasaki · May 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Dustin OrtizMetricWillie Gates
2.94
Strikes / min
1.80
2.17
Strikes absorbed / min
4.28
56%
Strike defense
38%
3.01
TDs / 15 min
0.00
52%
Takedown defense
67%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.77Δ 3.25 — meaningful gap-2.48
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Dustin OrtizWillie Gates
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Dustin Ortiz(10 fights)Willie Gates(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+16.9-16.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+232.0-232.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.7-1.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Dustin Ortiz
StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights14
Willie Gates
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights4