Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Dustin Pague won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Friday, June 8, 2012·Sunrise, Florida, USA, USA
Style matchupDustin Pague: Submission grapplervsJared Papazian: Striker
Striker must keep this standing. Grappler wins big if it hits the floor.
Model Prediction: Dustin Pague wins(73.1%)
Actual result: Dustin Pague wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Dustin Pague enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Dustin Pague threatens submissions; Jared Papazian has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
- Stance matchup historically favors Jared Papazian (53.5%).
- Dustin Pague has a 18cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Dustin Pague
Red Corner
VS
Jared Papazian
Blue Corner
+150
(40%)
Vegas Odds
-160
(62%)
38
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'8"
187.96 cm
Reach
170.18 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Dustin PagueL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs John Albert · Dec 11L
vs Ken Stone · Jun 12L
vs Chico Camus · Aug 12L
vs Yves Jabouin · Jun 13L
KOvs Kyoji Horiguchi · Oct 13Jared PapazianL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Mike Easton · Jan 12L
vs Tim Elliott · Dec 12Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Dustin PagueMetricJared Papazian
1.65
Strikes / min
3.33
2.96
Strikes absorbed / min
3.81
41%
Strike defense
44%
1.03
TDs / 15 min
0.00
55%
Takedown defense
50%
2.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.31evenly matched on net striking-0.48
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Dustin PagueJared Papazian
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Dustin Pague(6 fights)Jared Papazian(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-0.70.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+48.0-48.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Dustin Pague
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights6
Jared Papazian
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights3