Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Kyoji Horiguchi won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, October 19, 2013·Houston, Texas, USA, USA
Style matchupDustin Pague: Submission grapplervsKyoji Horiguchi: Elusive striker
The grappler must close distance and chain wrestling. The elusive striker keeps space and picks shots.
Model Prediction: Kyoji Horiguchi wins(52.2%)
Actual result: Kyoji Horiguchi wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Dustin Pague enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Kyoji Horiguchi enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Kyoji Horiguchi has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Dustin Pague has a 28cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Dustin Pague
Red Corner
VS
Kyoji Horiguchi
Blue Corner
+135
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-145
(59%)
38
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'4"
187.96 cm
Reach
160.02 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Dustin PagueL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs John Albert · Dec 11W
SUBvs Jared Papazian · Jun 12L
vs Ken Stone · Jun 12L
vs Chico Camus · Aug 12L
vs Yves Jabouin · Jun 13Kyoji HoriguchiW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Chico Camus · Sep 15W
vs Neil Seery · May 16W
vs Ali Bagautinov · Nov 16W
SUBvs Tagir Ulanbekov · Nov 25W
vs Amir Albazi · Feb 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Dustin PagueMetricKyoji Horiguchi
1.65
Strikes / min
3.77
2.96
Strikes absorbed / min
2.13
41%
Strike defense
63%
1.03
TDs / 15 min
1.61
55%
Takedown defense
61%
2.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.31Δ 2.95 — meaningful gap+1.64
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Dustin PagueKyoji Horiguchi
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Dustin Pague(6 fights)Kyoji Horiguchi(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-45.145.1
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.349.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.849.8
Dustin Pague
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights6
Kyoji Horiguchi
StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights10