Featherweight
3 Rounds
Dustin Poirier won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, December 28, 2013·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupDustin Poirier: Submission grapplervsDiego Brandao: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Dustin Poirier wins(57.9%)
Actual result: Dustin Poirier wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Dustin Poirier is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Diego Brandao has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Diego Brandao has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Diego Brandao has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Dustin Poirier (53.5%).
- Dustin Poirier has a 20cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Dustin Poirier
Red Corner
VS
Diego Brandao
Blue Corner
-240
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+220
(31%)
37
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'7"
182.88 cm
Reach
162.56 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Dustin PoirierL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23W
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24L
SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24L
vs Max Holloway · Jul 25Diego Brandao
oldest →latest
W
vs Daniel Pineda · Aug 13L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 14W
KOvs Jimy Hettes · Apr 15W
KOvs Katsunori Kikuno · Sep 15L
SUBvs Brian Ortega · Jan 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Dustin PoirierMetricDiego Brandao
5.24
Strikes / min
2.94
4.57
Strikes absorbed / min
3.38
52%
Strike defense
62%
1.15
TDs / 15 min
3.21
64%
Takedown defense
80%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.67Δ 1.11 — meaningful gap-0.44
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Dustin PoirierDiego Brandao
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Dustin Poirier(10 fights)Diego Brandao(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+8.8-8.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-14.014.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.9-1.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
Dustin Poirier
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights31
Diego Brandao
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights10