Lightweight
3 Rounds
Dustin Poirier won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, January 2, 2016·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupDustin Poirier: Submission grapplervsJoe Duffy: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Dustin Poirier wins(76.8%)
Actual result: Dustin Poirier wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Joe Duffy enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Joe Duffy threatens submissions; Dustin Poirier has lost 44% of fights by sub.
- Stance matchup historically favors Dustin Poirier (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Dustin Poirier
Red Corner
VS
Joe Duffy
Blue Corner
+130
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-150
(60%)
37
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'10"
182.88 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Dustin PoirierL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23W
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24L
SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24L
vs Max Holloway · Jul 25Joe DuffyL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Mitch Clarke · Jul 16W
vs Reza Madadi · Mar 17L
KOvs James Vick · Nov 17L
vs Marc Diakiese · Mar 19L
SUBvs Joel Alvarez · Jul 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Dustin PoirierMetricJoe Duffy
5.24
Strikes / min
2.68
4.57
Strikes absorbed / min
3.78
52%
Strike defense
54%
1.15
TDs / 15 min
0.96
64%
Takedown defense
64%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.67Δ 1.77 — meaningful gap-1.10
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Dustin PoirierJoe Duffy
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Dustin Poirier(10 fights)Joe Duffy(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+63.9-63.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+42.0-42.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+2.5-2.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Dustin Poirier
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights31
Joe Duffy
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8