Lightweight
5 Rounds
Justin Gaethje won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, July 29, 2023·Salt Lake City, Utah, USA, USA
Style matchupDustin Poirier: Submission grapplervsJustin Gaethje: Pressure fighter
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Justin Gaethje wins(55.0%)
Actual result: Justin Gaethje wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Dustin Poirier is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Justin Gaethje has lost 60% of fights by KO.
- Stance matchup historically favors Dustin Poirier (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Dustin Poirier
Red Corner
VS
Justin Gaethje
Blue Corner
-145
(59%)
Vegas Odds
+125
(44%)
37
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'11"
182.88 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Dustin PoirierL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Dec 21W
SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22W
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24L
SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24L
vs Max Holloway · Jul 25Justin GaethjeW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Charles Oliveira · May 22W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 23L
KOvs Max Holloway · Apr 24W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 25W
vs Paddy Pimblett · Jan 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Dustin PoirierMetricJustin Gaethje
5.24
Strikes / min
6.48
4.57
Strikes absorbed / min
7.05
52%
Strike defense
51%
1.15
TDs / 15 min
0.33
64%
Takedown defense
74%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.67Δ 1.24 — meaningful gap-0.57
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Dustin PoirierJustin Gaethje
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Dustin Poirier(10 fights)Justin Gaethje(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+100.1-100.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+126.0-126.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Dustin Poirier
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights31
Justin Gaethje
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15