Featherweight
3 Rounds
Dustin Poirier won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, February 4, 2012·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupDustin Poirier: Submission grapplervsMax Holloway: Pressure fighter
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Dustin Poirier wins(69.2%)
Actual result: Dustin Poirier wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Max Holloway has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Dustin Poirier (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Dustin Poirier
Red Corner
VS
Max Holloway
Blue Corner
-515
(84%)
Vegas Odds
+445
(18%)
37
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'11"
182.88 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Dustin PoirierL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23W
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24L
SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24L
vs Max Holloway · Jul 25Max Holloway
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Aug 23W
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Apr 24L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Oct 24W
vs Dustin Poirier · Jul 25L
vs Charles Oliveira · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Dustin PoirierMetricMax Holloway
5.24
Strikes / min
6.91
4.57
Strikes absorbed / min
4.61
52%
Strike defense
58%
1.15
TDs / 15 min
0.23
64%
Takedown defense
81%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.67Δ 1.63 — meaningful gap+2.30
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Dustin PoirierMax Holloway
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Dustin Poirier(10 fights)Max Holloway(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+47.3-47.3
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-46.746.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.849.8
Dustin Poirier
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights31
Max Holloway
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights32