Lightweight
3 Rounds
Dustin Poirier won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, November 12, 2022·New York City, New York, USA, USA
Style matchupDustin Poirier: Submission grapplervsMichael Chandler: Pressure fighter
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Dustin Poirier wins(60.0%)
Actual result: Dustin Poirier wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Dustin Poirier (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Dustin Poirier
Red Corner
VS
Michael Chandler
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
37
Age
40
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'8"
182.88 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Dustin PoirierL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Dec 21L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23W
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24L
SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24L
vs Max Holloway · Jul 25Michael ChandlerL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Charles Oliveira · May 21L
vs Justin Gaethje · Nov 21W
KOvs Tony Ferguson · May 22L
vs Charles Oliveira · Nov 24L
KOvs Paddy Pimblett · Apr 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Dustin PoirierMetricMichael Chandler
5.24
Strikes / min
4.04
4.57
Strikes absorbed / min
4.52
52%
Strike defense
43%
1.15
TDs / 15 min
1.96
64%
Takedown defense
61%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.67Δ 1.15 — meaningful gap-0.48
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Dustin PoirierMichael Chandler
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Dustin Poirier(10 fights)Michael Chandler(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+166.8-166.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+147.0-147.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+2.1-2.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Dustin Poirier
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights31
Michael Chandler
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights7