Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Ed Herman won · SUB
UFC Event·Saturday, September 12, 2020·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupEd Herman: Submission grapplervsMike Rodriguez: Pressure fighter
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Ed Herman wins(51.2%)
Actual result: Ed Herman wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Ed Herman has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Mike Rodriguez (53.5%).
- Mike Rodriguez has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Ed Herman
Red Corner
VS
Mike Rodriguez
Blue Corner
+195
(34%)
Vegas Odds
-250
(71%)
45
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
6'4"
195.58 cm
Reach
208.28 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Ed HermanL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Gian Villante · Oct 18W
KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 19W
vs Khadis Ibragimov · Nov 19L
vs Alonzo Menifield · Aug 21L
KOvs Zak Cummings · Apr 23Mike RodriguezL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Adam Milstead · Dec 18L
vs Da Un Jung · Dec 19W
KOvs Marcin Prachnio · Aug 20L
SUBvs Danilo Marques · Feb 21L
vs Tafon Nchukwi · Sep 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Ed HermanMetricMike Rodriguez
3.31
Strikes / min
4.35
3.71
Strikes absorbed / min
4.24
42%
Strike defense
41%
1.96
TDs / 15 min
0.00
59%
Takedown defense
37%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.40evenly matched on net striking+0.11
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Ed HermanMike Rodriguez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Ed Herman(10 fights)Mike Rodriguez(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+38.6-38.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+287.0-287.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
Ed Herman
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights16
Mike Rodriguez
StanceSouthpaw
Height76.0"
Reach82.0"
Fights7