Middleweight
3 Rounds
Ed Herman won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, May 10, 2014·Cincinnati, Ohio, USA, USA
Style matchupEd Herman: Submission grapplervsRafael Natal: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Rafael Natal wins(56.3%)
Actual result: Ed Herman wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Rafael Natal has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Rafael Natal has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Ed Herman
Red Corner
VS
Rafael Natal
Blue Corner
+135
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-155
(61%)
45
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'0"
195.58 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Ed HermanL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 19W
vs Khadis Ibragimov · Nov 19W
SUBvs Mike Rodriguez · Sep 20L
vs Alonzo Menifield · Aug 21L
KOvs Zak Cummings · Apr 23Rafael NatalL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Uriah Hall · May 15W
KOvs Kevin Casey · Jan 16L
vs Robert Whittaker · Apr 16L
KOvs Tim Boetsch · Nov 16L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Jul 17Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Ed HermanMetricRafael Natal
3.31
Strikes / min
3.10
3.71
Strikes absorbed / min
2.48
42%
Strike defense
57%
1.96
TDs / 15 min
2.55
59%
Takedown defense
77%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.40Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap+0.62
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Ed HermanRafael Natal
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Ed Herman(10 fights)Rafael Natal(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+15.9-15.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-10.010.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Ed Herman
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights16
Rafael Natal
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights16