Lightweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Conor McGregor won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, November 12, 2016·New York City, New York, USA, USA
Style matchupEddie Alvarez: WrestlervsConor McGregor: Pressure fighter
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Conor McGregor wins(51.7%)
Actual result: Conor McGregor wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Eddie Alvarez is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Conor McGregor has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Conor McGregor is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Eddie Alvarez has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Eddie Alvarez has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Conor McGregor (53.5%).
- Conor McGregor has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Eddie Alvarez
Red Corner
VS
Conor McGregor
Blue Corner
+140
(42%)
Vegas Odds
-160
(62%)
42
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'9"
175.26 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Eddie Alvarez
oldest →latest
W
vs Gilbert Melendez · Jun 15W
vs Anthony Pettis · Jan 16W
KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Jul 16W
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Dec 17L
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 18Conor McGregorL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Nate Diaz · Aug 16L
SUBvs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Oct 18W
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Jan 20L
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jan 21L
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Eddie AlvarezMetricConor McGregor
4.32
Strikes / min
5.32
4.39
Strikes absorbed / min
4.66
55%
Strike defense
54%
2.92
TDs / 15 min
0.67
92%
Takedown defense
66%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.07evenly matched on net striking+0.66
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Eddie AlvarezConor McGregor
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Eddie Alvarez(7 fights)Conor McGregor(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-57.357.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+44.0-44.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
Eddie Alvarez
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights7
Conor McGregor
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights14